0x469af7196fbb5aba46a378d0ae173756a432cea3
0x469af7196fbb5aba46a378d0ae173756a432cea3
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$159.24
Total PnL
$-20.11
Realised
$5.19
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
35 shares @ 70.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$34.77
$10.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
23 shares @ 64.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$22.50
$8.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
20 shares @ 87.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$19.86
$2.48
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
13 shares @ 52.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$12.52
$6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
10 shares @ 67.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$9.59
$3.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
34 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.69Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.42Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.45Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.81Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.01Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.55Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.74Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.51Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$0.24Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.20Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.11Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$6.55Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$2.66Jul 28, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$7.34Jul 28, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.38Jul 28, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$2.90Jul 28, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.76Jul 28, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.64Jul 28, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.83Jul 28, 11:05 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$15.00Jul 28, 11:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.