Cumbersome-Playroom
0x46a955a48279177993240ea55febc0eecdb47e8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$33.07
Total PnL
$0.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $200k in May?$33.00May 15, 08:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?$11.03May 15, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend?$22.02May 15, 07:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crystal Palace be relegated?$27.14May 15, 07:59 UTC
- REDEEMChelsea wins the Premier League?$52.27May 15, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYChelsea wins the Premier League?$52.22Apr 2, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crystal Palace be relegated?$27.00Apr 2, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend?$22.00Apr 2, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?$11.00Apr 2, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31?$112.22Apr 2, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31?$112.11Mar 31, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL?$111.89Mar 31, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL?$112.00Mar 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?$32.93Mar 30, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$79.29Mar 30, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$79.38Mar 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?$33.00Mar 28, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?$112.38Mar 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?$112.79Mar 27, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?$112.79Mar 27, 17:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $77.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 08:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.