0x46b438221cea053fc6092af597da395aa5ba72e9
0x46b438221cea053fc6092af597da395aa5ba72e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-16.3K
Realised
$20.01
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
273797 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-817.28
- YES
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?
13137 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-475.06
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
9501 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
4442 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-8.88
- YES
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 33m and 36m?
3253 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?
2830 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-475.73
- NO
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?
2459 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-155.65
- UGO HUMBERT
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
1497 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-463.83
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
1237 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-432.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$21.18Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.84Jul 7, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.64Jul 7, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.20Jul 7, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$21.50Jul 6, 19:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$0.50Jun 24, 03:30 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$7.52Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$13.35Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.50Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?$0.85Jun 22, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$28.52Jun 22, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$40.83Jun 22, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$18.48Jun 22, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.23Jun 22, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.25Jun 22, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$9.52Jun 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$14.00Jun 22, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$13.68Jun 22, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.28Jun 22, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.21Jun 22, 02:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $15.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 10:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.