Enormous-Sampan
0x46bb8bf038cbfddd7bce04b8ac60dc73c3456d65
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$215.10
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
5%
128 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?
96 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$95.21
$-0.24
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?
80 shares @ 95.0¢·now 89.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$70.96
$-4.60
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
50 shares @ 84.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$48.92
$6.92
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1015 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-66.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
820 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-34.75
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 1AM ET
258 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-53.87
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12AM ET
193 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-87.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4PM ET
190 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-78.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 12AM ET
177 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-78.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
106 shares @ 42.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-44.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$50.95Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$44.51Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?$1.08Jul 19, 15:15 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Team to Win$500.00Jul 18, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$32.14Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$165.67Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$100.39Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$195.80Jul 18, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?$27.19Jul 18, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?$48.64Jul 18, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?$2.37Jul 15, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$42.47Jul 14, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$11.45Jul 13, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?$28.58Jul 13, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$31.70Jul 13, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.88Jul 13, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$3.96Jul 13, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping by July 31?$8.97Jul 12, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$400.00Jul 9, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$390.00Jul 9, 21:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 128 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
128 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $29.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 22:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 128 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.