Jaunty-Singular
0x46fc9b585f23e0fde71296e9002f455b6d75a639
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.96
Realised
$-2.06
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Washington Governor Election?
62 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
46 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election?
31 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election?
30 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
29 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election?
26 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada Presidential Election?
18 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2024$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
15 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2024$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Georgia Presidential Election?
14 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2024$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election?
14 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$0.00Jan 7, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?$0.62Dec 12, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?$0.63Dec 12, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELL$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?$2.50Dec 12, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUY$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?$2.51Dec 12, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLLiverpool wins the Premier League?$5.44Dec 12, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLiverpool wins the Premier League?$5.45Dec 12, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?$1.72Dec 12, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?$1.74Dec 12, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?$1.28Dec 12, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?$1.30Dec 12, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump win another state by the largest margin?$0.07Nov 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump win another state by the largest margin?$0.14Nov 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump win another state by the largest margin?$0.06Nov 18, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.14Nov 15, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.41Nov 15, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.09Nov 15, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.27Nov 15, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.12Nov 15, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$0.36Nov 15, 11:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 12, 23:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 7, 10:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.