Negative-Skullduggery
0x470bf138697e2d1423b5d946fdfa00aa43abc331
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
189
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-75.60
Win rate
1%
181 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?
300 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17?
281 shares @ 75.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-211.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?
229 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5?
155 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$0.00
$-13.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11?
150 shares @ 79.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-119.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17?
101 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-42.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?
101 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-40.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?
98 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11?
96 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-33.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?
80 shares @ 41.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-33.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 5?$10.00Aug 6, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$1.02Aug 5, 08:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 4?$49.99Aug 5, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.01Aug 5, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.16Aug 5, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.28Aug 5, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.16Aug 5, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.16Aug 5, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.16Aug 5, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.16Aug 5, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.13Aug 5, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.02Aug 5, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.04Aug 5, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?$0.10Aug 5, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5?$8.47Aug 5, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5?$2.73Aug 5, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5?$2.67Aug 5, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on August 5?$2.81Aug 5, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on August 5?$14.75Aug 5, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 5?$2.06Aug 5, 02:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 181 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
181 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 12:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 04:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 181 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.