Tired-Payee-Substitution
0x47456654ca890a5e2cc295df82aec2d648d70cce
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-454.48
Realised
$-9.13
Win rate
0%
65 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?
1200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
750 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
120 shares @ 59.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-71.25
- YES
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
116 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
104 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
95 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?
60 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-32.30
- YES
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Türkiye leading at halftime?
48 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?$1.67Jul 23, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 23?$1.05Jul 23, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 23, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 23?$3.15Jul 23, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Jul 23, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.24Jul 23, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.05Jul 23, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 23?$1.10Jul 23, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.04Jul 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 23?$1.01Jul 23, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 20?$1.04Jul 20, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?$1.39Jul 20, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 20?$1.03Jul 20, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20?$1.05Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 20?$1.04Jul 20, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?$1.03Jul 20, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 65 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
65 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 06:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 22:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 65 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.