Short-Circumstance
0x474fd39ebc844b630652a9f4c537bedd8c68f2a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-577.56
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 8?
3050 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-214.89
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
2600 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.40
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2600 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?
1995 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-35.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?
1900 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-69.32
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 10?
700 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-128.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
300 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
223 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-98.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.00Mar 21, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.02Mar 21, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$16.15Mar 21, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.02Mar 21, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.02Mar 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.03Mar 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.11Mar 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.36Mar 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?$4.11Mar 21, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.01Mar 21, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.02Mar 21, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.08Mar 21, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.03Mar 21, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.02Mar 21, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.08Mar 21, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.01Mar 21, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$0.09Mar 21, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$17.67Mar 21, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?$1.19Mar 21, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?$3.16Mar 21, 07:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $16.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 14:19 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 21, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".