Wallet digest

active

Activity score

46/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2M

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

NO
Will England win on 2026-06-17?
1107836 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-455.6K
NO
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?
372640 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-81.0K
NO
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?
292222 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-116.9K
NO
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?
232585 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-67.4K
NO
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
231587 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-88.0K
NO
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
221879 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-68.8K
NO
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?
201804 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-83.6K
NO
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?
164675 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-16.5K
NO
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24?
146738 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-39.1K
NO
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?
132330 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-38.4K

Recent activity

REWARD$16.49Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$32.72Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.12Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$44.75Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$286.90Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$29.22Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$647.62Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$126.21Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$554.27Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$934.75Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$650.11Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$14.94Jul 2, 16:06 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$556.31Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?$8.0KJul 1, 23:15 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?$4.0KJul 1, 19:36 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.6KJul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.1KJun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$42.79Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$17.88Jun 28, 00:45 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.6KJun 28, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

11 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

low

2 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

$7.5K · 54% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will England win on 2026-06-17?54% of recorded volume$7.5K Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?46% of recorded volume$6.3K

Profile dimensions

Activity27 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry56 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk66 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 11
Avg trade size: $1.8K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 20, 18:24 UTC
Last active: Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:26:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data