Crazy-Incident
0x47838a0772f28af08499292973d5c8c186d273f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-484.26
Realised
$5.38
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 17?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
236 shares @ 84.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-199.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
144 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-28.76
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
143 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-36.62
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
140 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-35.63
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
91 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-79.76
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
56 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.74
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 20?
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$30.00Feb 16, 22:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$31.61Feb 16, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$31.24Feb 16, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$0.00Feb 16, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$0.00Feb 16, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$0.00Feb 16, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$31.56Feb 16, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$30.92Feb 16, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 13:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$38.81Feb 16, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$5.00Feb 16, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$30.30Feb 16, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$30.00Feb 16, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$200.00Feb 16, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$50.50Feb 16, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$0.00Feb 16, 12:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $62.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 16, 09:54 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 16, 22:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.