Trivial-Birch
0x478a78656d5e577f1f83478a5912554addb6c943
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-80.20
Win rate
0%
177 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
88 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-20.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
88 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-16.44
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
88 shares @ 29.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-25.59
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
88 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-19.19
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
88 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-27.12
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
88 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-17.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
88 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-22.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
88 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
88 shares @ 23.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-20.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
88 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-20.91
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$32.00Aug 12, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$1.52Aug 12, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$1.52Aug 12, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.56Aug 12, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.69Aug 12, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.48Aug 12, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.33Aug 12, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.25Aug 12, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$24.00Aug 12, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.64Aug 12, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.54Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.00Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.29Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.77Aug 12, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$6.00Aug 12, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.72Aug 12, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$37.25Aug 12, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$6.00Aug 12, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.02Aug 12, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.54Aug 12, 21:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 177 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
177 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 21:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 177 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.