Neat-Cowbell
0x479dd4d259a42973c9ab0b237171ce16ca729cc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-116.70
Realised
$9.31
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16?
11702 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16?
35 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
33 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
26 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
19 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
18 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
10 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
9 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$0.00Jul 14, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$0.27Jul 14, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$2.04Jul 14, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.19Jul 14, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.06Jul 14, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.15Jul 14, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.06Jul 14, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.05Jul 14, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.04Jul 14, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.04Jul 14, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.92Jul 14, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$2.07Jul 14, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$2.05Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$5.28Jul 14, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$2.11Jul 14, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$2.08Jul 14, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$2.07Jul 13, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$1.06Jul 13, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$2.38Jul 13, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$2.03Jul 13, 19:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.