Gregarious-Bride
0x47cfef8ec29795fe8efcba46f3ba67cacab89a02
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-96.20
Realised
$-2.26
Win rate
0%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 28?
131 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 28?
102 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8?
50 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on July 1?
40 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11?
30 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 1?
26 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?
26 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22?
20 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?
20 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.07Jul 24, 21:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.04Jul 24, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.07Jul 24, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$5.26Jul 24, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$5.02Jul 24, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.19Jul 24, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$4.06Jul 24, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$4.43Jul 24, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$3.55Jul 24, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$3.54Jul 24, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$3.50Jul 24, 09:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$3.45Jul 21, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$3.03Jul 21, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$3.21Jul 18, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$2.73Jul 18, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$2.60Jul 18, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$2.03Jul 18, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$2.27Jul 16, 15:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
32 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 16:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 21:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.