Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$94.88

Total PnL

$-5.21

Realised

$-2.18

Win rate

26 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 29

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
15 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$15.37
$2.77
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
12 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$11.52
$1.04
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
8 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$8.45
$1.69
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$6.38
$3.19
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
6 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$6.37
$3.12
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$5.58
$2.79
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
4 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$4.16
$0.58
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$4.08
$2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$4.00
$2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$4.00
$2.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.07Aug 16, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.07Aug 16, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.07Aug 16, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$3.40Aug 15, 22:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$0.41Aug 15, 19:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$0.57Aug 15, 19:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$0.30Aug 15, 19:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$0.13Aug 15, 16:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.85Aug 15, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.63Aug 15, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.64Aug 15, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$2.07Jul 27, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$2.07Jul 26, 22:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.07Jul 26, 22:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.07Jul 26, 22:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.50Jul 9, 07:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$2.43Jul 9, 05:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.07Jul 9, 01:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.15Jul 9, 01:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$3.36Jul 8, 11:43 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 26 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity57 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence87 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry66 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $2.94
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 23:48 UTC
Last active: Aug 16, 21:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 26 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:51:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data