Smooth-Pick
0x47ebeba0345db3ab10f2e121d6ac8d18bf94c1a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-59.39
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
DC Airport Ground Stop lifted today?
85 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
53 shares @ 59.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-31.61
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
22 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?
15 shares @ 34.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 15?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.23Jun 30, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$32.07Mar 15, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?$2.33Mar 15, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?$5.16Mar 15, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?$6.00Mar 15, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?$16.31Mar 15, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 14, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$2.68Mar 14, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$2.00Mar 14, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Mar 14, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Mar 14, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.00Mar 14, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?$2.00Mar 14, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 14, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15?$5.00Mar 14, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 14, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?$1.00Mar 14, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on March 15?$15.00Mar 14, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 15?$5.00Mar 14, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14?$1.00Mar 14, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 03:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 03:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.