Proud-Madam
0x47fae487d77351312a4ba1a955f6c7183b388933
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-285.82
Realised
$-2.68
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 13?
1208 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 16?
101 shares @ 85.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-86.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 22?
100 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-98.00
- YES
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West?
40 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on December 21?
35 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 21?
35 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 21?
30 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 21?
30 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 17?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-12.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 17?
25 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-2.08
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$0.02Jan 18, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$0.00Jan 17, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$2.35Jan 17, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$3.70Jan 17, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$1.20Jan 17, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$0.97Jan 17, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$0.58Jan 17, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.08Jan 17, 02:08 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.20Jan 17, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.00Jan 16, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.00Jan 16, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jan 16, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.50Jan 16, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$1.85Jan 16, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$1.37Jan 16, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$1.68Jan 16, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.20Jan 16, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.54Jan 16, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$3.49Jan 16, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$2.95Jan 16, 21:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 16, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 18, 00:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.