Wallet digest

active

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.9K

Realised

$-492.01

Win rate

15%

72 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.10
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
326 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-79.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
293 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-80.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
276 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-133.08
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
241 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-89.71
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
219 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-97.30
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
206 shares @ 47.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-97.05
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
203 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-58.59
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
202 shares @ 50.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-101.61
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
202 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-102.23

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$5.13Jun 10, 11:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.04Jun 10, 11:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$5.16Jun 10, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$9.43Jun 10, 10:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$2.65Jun 10, 10:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$2.35Jun 10, 10:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$5.16Jun 10, 10:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$5.17Jun 10, 10:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$5.14Jun 10, 10:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$5.11Jun 10, 10:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.12Jun 10, 10:21 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$9.80Jun 10, 10:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$9.61Jun 10, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.17Jun 10, 10:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.17Jun 10, 10:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$5.17Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$9.25Jun 10, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$5.16Jun 10, 09:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$5.16Jun 10, 09:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$7.69Jun 10, 07:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

15% win rate over 72 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

72 closed markets, 15% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry83 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $4.23
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 5, 00:21 UTC
Last active: Jun 10, 11:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 72 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:21:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data