0x482ed8eb72d7082bb163df8980c9a91cac4a5f78
0x482ed8eb72d7082bb163df8980c9a91cac4a5f78
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$25.04
Total PnL
$-73.52
Realised
$-35.70
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?
75 shares @ 20.5¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$14.63
$-0.77
- YES
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026?
5 shares @ 39.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$2.92
$0.97
- NO
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
3 shares @ 75.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$2.66
$0.66
- NO
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
3 shares @ 79.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$2.50
$0.51
- NO
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1 shares @ 83.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.13
$-0.17
- YES
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11?
4850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.85
- NO
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11?
1843 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.84
- NO
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-12?
530 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- NO
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
28 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.08May 16, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?$1.03May 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spirit win PGL Astana 2026?$1.99May 15, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?$2.74May 8, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?$2.93May 8, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$3.43May 8, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$8.00May 8, 06:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $1.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 06:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 22:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".