0x483c3acece18f096a486960ef9ca19a4608c70f6
0x483c3acece18f096a486960ef9ca19a4608c70f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$167.97
Total PnL
$12.90
Realised
$-0.38
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 3?
8 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$8.00
$2.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 2?
8 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$8.00
$1.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$8.00
$3.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?
8 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$8.00
$1.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 2?
8 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$8.00
$2.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 3?
8 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$8.00
$1.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 2?
8 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$8.00
$2.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 2?
8 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$8.00
$3.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 4?
8 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$8.00
$1.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 5?
8 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$8.00
$2.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?$0.40Jul 3, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?$1.36Jul 3, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 5?$5.36Jul 3, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?$4.08Jul 3, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?$6.00Jul 3, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 4?$6.24Jul 3, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 3?$6.16Jul 2, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 3?$5.04Jul 2, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?$5.60Jul 2, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 4?$5.04Jul 2, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 4?$5.84Jul 2, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?$1.99Jul 2, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 2?$0.81Jul 1, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 2?$1.44Jul 1, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?$6.31Jul 1, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 2?$3.08Jul 1, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 3?$3.31Jul 1, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 3?$2.13Jul 1, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?$0.98Jul 1, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 2?$3.11Jul 1, 17:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $3.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 21:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 21:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.