Embarrassed-Gelding
0x4840c4fbca3120e7b55c3a04275721913e2930fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$40.35
Total PnL
$-49.65
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
71 shares @ 21.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.35
$25.35
- YES
Bybit insolvent before April?
516 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?
273 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?
204 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
124 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
96 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Apple acquire Mistral by September 30?
86 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
OpenAI social app in 2025?
11 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMGPT-5.4 released by March 5?$0.00Mar 7, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.4 released by March 5?$185.05Mar 7, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.4 released by March 5?$150.00Mar 5, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?$115.89Feb 18, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?$15.00Feb 3, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?$10.00Feb 3, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?$35.71Jan 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI social app in 2025?$5.00Aug 23, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?$5.00Aug 23, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple acquire Mistral by September 30?$5.00Aug 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBybit insolvent before April?$20.00Feb 23, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?$10.00Feb 23, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?$5.00Feb 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? $5.00Feb 23, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?$5.00Feb 23, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreens win over 15% of vote in German election? $10.00Feb 23, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?$10.00Feb 23, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $26.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 07:09 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 07:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".