Zany-Throne
0x486eefd542dc66b89a5b34d3e46a26c5930c5534
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$57.30
Total PnL
$-52.36
Realised
$2.19
Win rate
73%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
42 shares @ 0.6¢·now 93.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$38.92
$38.68
- YES
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?
84 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.32
$1.49
- YES
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
56 shares @ 2.5¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.89
$0.49
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: Other
272 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.77
$0.72
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
94 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.46
$0.28
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
66 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.41
$-2.55
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
71 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.00
$0.13
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
129 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.96
$0.23
- YES
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
133 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jan 25, 2027$0.86
$-0.32
- YES
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
30 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.85
$0.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 15?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 15?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 17?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Toronto Raptors finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South Australian Greens win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 15?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be at least 41.0 on April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 14?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16?$0.00Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
37 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 24, 20:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.