Thrifty-Ultimatum
0x489064a93fa12a7042bbc8b83d774810c454ffe3
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
6442 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-178.44
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
3174 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-149.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?
439 shares @ 79.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-350.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?
408 shares @ 85.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-350.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 20?
272 shares @ 91.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
143 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on March 20?
117 shares @ 85.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 20?
107 shares @ 93.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on March 20?$28.14Apr 18, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on March 20?$23.25Mar 20, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 20?$100.00Mar 20, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on March 20?$50.00Mar 20, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?$100.00Nov 30, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$169.99Nov 17, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?$26.34Nov 17, 17:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $67.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 23:40 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 18, 05:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".