Definite-Permit
0x4899ef7434e3713b62a43e10466eb3233e60c3cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$7.52
Total PnL
$-18.7K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
84 shares @ 11.0¢·now 8.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.52
$-1.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
4470 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
4420 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
4410 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
4410 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
2310 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
2300 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
2292 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
2288 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
2110 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.24Mar 23, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.03Mar 23, 01:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?$2.06Mar 23, 01:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$5.07Mar 23, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?$2.00Feb 4, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$5.00Feb 4, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.03Jan 8, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President in 2025?$1.32Jan 8, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?$1.32Jan 8, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMCardano ETF in 2025?$1.47Jan 8, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMMusk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?$2.01Jan 8, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.00Jan 8, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMusk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?$2.00Dec 17, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYCardano ETF in 2025?$1.40Dec 10, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President in 2025?$1.30Dec 5, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?$1.30Nov 28, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Nov 21, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.00Nov 21, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Nov 21, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.00Nov 21, 02:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $463.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 20, 11:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".