Wallet profile

Fearless-Refusal-Fanlight

0x48e0437bfa9fb543854bcd11fab1297684bd826d

activity 29/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

115

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-110.0K

Realised

$-5.4K

Win rate

3%

73 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 115

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$11.26Aug 16, 00:35 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-08-15?$831.16Aug 15, 11:41 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$27.97Aug 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.85Aug 14, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$42.37Aug 13, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$29.92Aug 12, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.78Aug 10, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.44Aug 9, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.65Aug 8, 00:35 UTC
  • REWARD$2.21Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$32.90Aug 7, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$17.60Aug 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.93Aug 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.32Aug 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$33.12Aug 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$59.70Aug 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.10Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.06Jul 31, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$16.74Jul 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.85Jul 29, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 73 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

73 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity58 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry77 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
20
Avg trade size
$91.64
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 19, 00:45 UTC
Last active
Aug 16, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
73 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 07:58:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data