Probable-Blowgun
0x48f3f6c818e23636f04851006837c8296e9fa591
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$2.89
Total PnL
$-252.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
107 shares @ 18.7¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.89
$-17.11
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
800 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
503 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
294 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
170 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?
152 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
136 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump visit Gaza in first 100 days?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
95 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$10.00Jan 11, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?$15.00Jan 11, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Jan 11, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?$15.00Jan 11, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?$20.00Jan 11, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$15.00Jan 11, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$15.00Jan 11, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?$15.00Jan 11, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?$15.00Jan 11, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?$15.00Jan 11, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?$10.00Jan 11, 01:23 UTC
- REDEEMUS military action against Iran before July?$0.00Oct 9, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$60.00Oct 9, 00:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS military action against Iran before July?$223.05Oct 9, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military action against Iran before July?$54.99Jun 12, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?$5.21Feb 16, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit Gaza in first 100 days?$5.00Feb 16, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?$30.00Feb 16, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military strike against Iran in November?$0.00Feb 16, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMIran strike on Israel before December?$0.00Feb 16, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $17.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 20, 17:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 11, 07:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".