0x490e59912217dc88940c4f879115d67cd65a123a
0x490e59912217dc88940c4f879115d67cd65a123a
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$596.78
Total PnL
$39.55
Realised
$9.89
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
126 shares @ 81.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$124.62
$22.54
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
794 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.3¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$90.16
$-28.99
- NO
Will Solana dip to $60 in July?
63 shares @ 82.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$63.26
$10.99
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?
52 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$51.78
$1.33
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
47 shares @ 73.2¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$46.42
$11.81
- NO
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?
34 shares @ 88.4¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$33.31
$3.54
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
32 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$32.06
$2.24
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?
25 shares @ 73.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$24.74
$6.45
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?
23 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$22.75
$4.96
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
21 shares @ 85.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.84
$3.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$14.59Jul 31, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on August 2?$5.81Jul 31, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 31?$0.66Jul 31, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 31?$0.54Jul 31, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?$10.88Jul 31, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$6.01Jul 31, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$12.47Jul 31, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?$1.17Jul 31, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?$1.69Jul 31, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?$0.84Jul 31, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?$1.89Jul 31, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$5.58Jul 31, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$0.20Jul 31, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$0.98Jul 31, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$0.19Jul 31, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$0.39Jul 31, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?$0.01Jul 31, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 30?$0.00Jul 31, 05:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 03:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.