Full-Steel
0x49107f41e297d90f24fbf7c05053a7ead750b2b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
191
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.5K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
100%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 191- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
8000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
6194 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-204.29
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
4892 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-258.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
4840 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-79.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
4814 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-399.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
4306 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
4000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
2472 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-240.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
2081 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-250.17
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.07May 17, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.07May 17, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.31May 17, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.33May 17, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.06May 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$4.74May 17, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$10.64May 17, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$10.04May 17, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5.32May 17, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$2.30May 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$10.64May 17, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$8.10May 17, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.24May 17, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.00May 17, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.01May 17, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$7.11May 17, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.29May 17, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$5.29May 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$8.80May 17, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$5.30May 17, 20:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
33 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $12.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 17:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 21:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.