0x4916a7b80cc7923534dc3f16f4f9fc90261587bd
0x4916a7b80cc7923534dc3f16f4f9fc90261587bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$14.19
Total PnL
$-5.81
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$7.69
$2.69
- NO
Will Meta (META) close at $590-$600 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
6 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$6.49
$1.49
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?
9 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) close at $590-$600 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$5.00Mar 25, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.00Mar 25, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.00Mar 25, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$6.85Mar 25, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$7.58Mar 25, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Mar 25, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?$5.00Mar 25, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$5.00Mar 23, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$5.00Mar 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$5.00Mar 23, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?$0.00Mar 23, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?$3.01Mar 23, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 20, 2026?$3.73Mar 23, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?$0.00Mar 23, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$0.00Mar 23, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?$2.50Mar 17, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?$2.50Mar 17, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?$2.50Mar 17, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$2.48Mar 17, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 20, 2026?$2.50Mar 17, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $3.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 06:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 25, 07:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.