Cumbersome-Insurgence
0x494705b6829325652d93843aef64b440aabba7b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$163.11
Total PnL
$-105.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
57 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$27.54
$-0.57
- NO
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
81 shares @ 43.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.64
$-9.36
- NO
Will Warren Petersen be the Arizona Attorney General Republican nominee?
146 shares @ 24.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$20.42
$-14.58
- YES
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
95 shares @ 37.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$20.34
$-14.66
- NO
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
36 shares @ 70.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.03
$-6.96
- NO
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?
63 shares @ 56.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.50
$-17.50
- YES
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
33 shares @ 45.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.83
$-0.17
- NO
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
20 shares @ 80.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2026$14.60
$-1.40
- YES
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$4.21
$-0.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$15.00Jul 13, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$25.00Jul 13, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$1.00Jul 13, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$1.32Jul 13, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$0.98Jul 13, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$3.58Jul 13, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLMLB All-Star Game$31.26Jul 13, 02:22 UTC
- REWARD$12.38Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?$35.00Jul 12, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?$35.00Jul 12, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$35.00Jul 12, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$16.00Jul 12, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$35.00Jul 12, 03:45 UTC
- REWARD$14.51Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$35.00Jul 11, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$35.00Jul 11, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?$1.02Jul 11, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?$1.06Jul 11, 14:15 UTC
- REWARD$11.21Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$35.00Jul 10, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 16:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 19:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.