0x4953b486092000ca586db9f70bd96b392d45632a
0x4953b486092000ca586db9f70bd96b392d45632a
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$2.38
Total PnL
$-51.55
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.53
$0.53
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 39.1¢·now 33.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.85
$-0.15
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
21000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 19, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
251 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-14.29
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
167 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.63
- USA
World Championships: Finland vs. USA
123 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- LATVIA
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- GERMANY
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$15.40Jun 11, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$3.92Jun 11, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Latvia vs. Austria$10.10May 18, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland$1.02May 18, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Finland vs. USA$1.03May 18, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$3.02Apr 27, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$3.01Apr 27, 05:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.84Apr 24, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$3.91Apr 24, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Apr 24, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$3.29Apr 23, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$3.38Apr 22, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$3.38Apr 22, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$4.05Apr 22, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.01Apr 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 19, 2026?$1.00Apr 21, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$0.05Apr 21, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.27Apr 21, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$10.00Apr 20, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.55Apr 20, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 07:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 12:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.