Smoggy-Clone
0x496513a7ad09db3f013be728552b1fdabb39bf28
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$144.82
Total PnL
$63.85
Realised
$-1.30
Win rate
0%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 5?
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$66.70
$64.70
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?
19 shares @ 5.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$18.52
$17.52
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 20?
6 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$6.21
$0.21
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 18?
5 shares @ 60.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$4.93
$1.93
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?
4 shares @ 91.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$4.38
$0.38
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 17?
4 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$4.14
$0.14
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 27?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$3.33
$2.33
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 29?
3 shares @ 61.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.26
$1.26
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
16 shares @ 37.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.75
$-3.25
- NO
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 21?
2 shares @ 85.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$2.33
$0.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 15?$1.04Aug 14, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on August 14?$1.01Aug 14, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on August 14?$1.00Aug 13, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13?$0.00Aug 13, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 13?$1.07Aug 13, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18?$1.00Aug 13, 04:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 12?$1.02Aug 13, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 13?$1.00Aug 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 12?$1.00Aug 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13?$1.05Aug 12, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12?$2.38Aug 12, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 12?$1.00Aug 12, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 8?$0.00Aug 8, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 7?$0.00Aug 7, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 8?$1.06Aug 7, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7?$1.47Aug 7, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 7?$0.00Aug 7, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7?$1.02Aug 7, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on August 6?$1.02Aug 7, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
40 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 04:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 16:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.