0x496f76bd5cf4c2819c710ae90ed1c84b2dc6fa5d
0x496f76bd5cf4c2819c710ae90ed1c84b2dc6fa5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-972.46
Realised
$30.67
Win rate
64%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3?
136 shares @ 91.8¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$132.43
$8.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?
150 shares @ 90.1¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$129.00
$-6.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 3?
124 shares @ 90.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$124.26
$11.66
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?
127 shares @ 88.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$122.68
$10.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 4?
169 shares @ 77.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$112.54
$-18.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 4?
120 shares @ 89.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$112.19
$4.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 3?
145 shares @ 68.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$109.13
$9.89
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 3?
110 shares @ 92.1¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$108.48
$7.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 4?
112 shares @ 82.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$107.72
$15.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 3?
108 shares @ 93.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$106.85
$5.92
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
45 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.