0x497396d837e6433c7e9bd003832515f54ffb5527
0x497396d837e6433c7e9bd003832515f54ffb5527
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-36.97
Win rate
46%
113 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 10?
91 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-72.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 3?
90 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-8.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 4?
90 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 25?
88 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 4?
87 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-35.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 4?
87 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-35.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3?
86 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-14.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?
85 shares @ 25.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 3?
84 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-13.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 3?
82 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-24.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on April 4?$0.00May 31, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 30?$0.00May 31, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?$0.00May 31, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be 62°F or higher on April 10?$0.00May 31, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 4?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 16?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 1?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 30?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 4?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 29?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 2?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 28?$0.00May 31, 12:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 3?$0.00May 31, 12:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 113 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
113 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 11:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 12:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 113 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.