Thankful-Contention
0x4985153fc851f9dcfdaa5021a533e8f0dcff28bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$27.6K
Total PnL
$-39.3K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
27679 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.6K
$49.85
- YES
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
14724 shares @ 65.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-9.6K
- NO
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
14000 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
13685 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
10219 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-265.69
- YES
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?
8513 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-3.7K
- FLUMINENSE
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance)
7848 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- BAYERN
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance)
7297 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2025$0.00
$-3.1K
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
7000 shares @ 71.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.0K
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?
6983 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2025$0.00
$-76.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$62.24Jun 12, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$54.71Jun 12, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$34.75Jun 12, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$56.06Jun 12, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$52.57Jun 12, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$3.41Jun 12, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$49.55Jun 12, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$99.10Jun 12, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$441.83Jun 12, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$2.6KJun 12, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$56.90Jun 12, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$46.26Jun 12, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$59.79Jun 12, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$61.73Jun 12, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$54.85Jun 12, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$62.13Jun 12, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$63.49Jun 12, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$59.91Jun 12, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$55.21Jun 12, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$20.97Jun 12, 15:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $136.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 22:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.