0x49d9d549a2711c9ab5705a6bc320a5466717d032
0x49d9d549a2711c9ab5705a6bc320a5466717d032
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.42
Total PnL
$-962.68
Realised
$-27.86
Win rate
0%
177 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
32 shares @ 29.9¢·now 52.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$16.49
$7.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
30 shares @ 30.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.30
$-5.70
- UP
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 18?
60 shares @ 32.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.63
$-18.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 19?
1890 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 18?
1420 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.42
- YES
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?
215 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 13?
149 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.84
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
135 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
110 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$9.00Aug 18, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 18?$9.66Aug 18, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9AM ET$3.03Aug 18, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9AM ET$5.20Aug 18, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9AM ET$2.17Aug 18, 13:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 8AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 8AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 8AM ET$10.50Aug 18, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$7.25Aug 18, 11:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$7.00Aug 18, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$14.25Aug 18, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6AM ET$21.50Aug 18, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6AM ET$8.80Aug 18, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 6AM ET$0.45Aug 18, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$12.00Aug 18, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5AM ET$2.98Aug 18, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5AM ET$0.56Aug 18, 09:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 177 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
177 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $4.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 06:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 16:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 177 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.