Leafy-Kiosk
0x49dc9eaeaac9d3a39e5ecb023f5784921802ea96
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-12.9K
Realised
$-5.2K
Win rate
6%
150 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 1PM ET
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1PM ET
8539 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-13.01
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 6AM ET
1343 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-13.43
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
1030 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-271.59
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 1PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-263.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-263.68
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
692 shares @ 45.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-316.94
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
552 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-152.82
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
512 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-159.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 21?$0.90Aug 20, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?$10.43Aug 20, 09:36 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 21?$4.20Aug 20, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?$2.85Aug 20, 08:59 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 21?$4.10Aug 20, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?$0.93Aug 20, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?$1.56Aug 20, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$2.35Aug 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMYevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?$5.00Aug 20, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 21?$20.03Aug 20, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$2.50Aug 20, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?$0.55Aug 20, 08:24 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$2.40Aug 20, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 21?$0.80Aug 20, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$2.50Aug 20, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner$4.72Aug 20, 07:59 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?$5.00Aug 20, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 150 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
150 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 00:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 09:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 150 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.