Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-25.46

Realised

$24.17

Win rate

100%

70 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
UP
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 6AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 4AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
UP
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 6AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
UP
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 2AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
UP
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 6AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 2AM ET
230 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-0.40

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$0.02Jul 4, 12:40 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:39 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:39 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:29 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:29 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:27 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jul 4, 12:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jul 4, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 12:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jul 4, 12:11 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jul 4, 11:59 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 11:58 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.02Jul 4, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 09:43 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 09:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 09:42 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.02Jul 4, 09:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 09:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.01Jul 4, 09:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

75/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 70 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

70 closed markets, 100% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $0.01
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 05:28 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 12:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 70 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:31:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data