Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-253.32

Realised

$-7.73

Win rate

199 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
BNB Up or Down - August 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026
$0.00
$-0.10
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
4 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.20
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
4 shares @ 51.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-2.02
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
4 shares @ 61.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.40
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
4 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-0.96
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
4 shares @ 57.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.02
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - August 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
3 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.04
UP
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$0.05Aug 21, 18:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$0.05Aug 21, 18:34 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Aug 20, 06:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 02:24 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$1.06Aug 20, 02:21 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 02:19 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$1.23Aug 20, 02:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$1.02Aug 20, 02:14 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$1.05Aug 20, 02:11 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 02:09 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.04Aug 20, 02:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 01:59 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.05Aug 20, 01:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 01:44 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 01:44 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - August 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.11Aug 20, 01:34 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.02Aug 20, 01:34 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.06Aug 20, 01:16 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.04Aug 20, 01:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 01:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 199 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

199 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry82 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $0.96
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 19, 23:54 UTC
Last active: Aug 21, 18:34 UTC
Win rate sample: 199 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:08:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data