0x4a114f896abd746464b28fa9f0f21b4e9daf9daa
0x4a114f896abd746464b28fa9f0f21b4e9daf9daa
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$816.17
Total PnL
$-763.00
Realised
$63.98
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
736 shares @ 67.9¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$335.04
$-164.96
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
182 shares @ 55.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.09
$-0.91
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
141 shares @ 71.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$90.14
$-9.86
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
263 shares @ 38.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$89.47
$-10.53
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
106 shares @ 94.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$89.25
$-10.75
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
128 shares @ 78.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$86.54
$-13.46
- NO
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?
106 shares @ 93.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.36
$-77.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
54 shares @ 0.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$4.08
$4.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1PM ET
392 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.20
$-99.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
1744 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-143.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$4.08Jul 21, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 22?$108.88Jul 21, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$46.25Jul 21, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$106.71Jul 21, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1PM ET$105.71Jul 21, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$105.47Jul 21, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$104.98Jul 21, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$158.30Jul 21, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$106.03Jul 21, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$243.33Jul 21, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$104.33Jul 21, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$103.30Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$93.15Jul 21, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 21?$3.13Jul 21, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$104.14Jul 21, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$306.00Jul 21, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$103.23Jul 21, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$103.55Jul 21, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 22?$103.51Jul 21, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$131.79Jul 21, 16:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $114.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 20:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 18:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.