Insubstantial-Friction
0x4a13d9a6afcd0cbbdf8ac4d5fdc108ca13c93c66
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$31.06
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-73.07
Win rate
27%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
111 shares @ 9.9¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$31.06
$20.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
660 shares @ 78.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-520.36
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
613 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-144.19
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
487 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-265.10
- YES
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
463 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
345 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-52.06
- YES
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
208 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
129 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-71.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
100 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-48.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.