Defiant-Flax
0x4a1bfb215b0cfb61d71a27a0ef1091d8d03d7c8e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$22.27
Total PnL
$1.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
3 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
2 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.15
$0.05
- YES
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.04
$0.14
- NO
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.73
$0.03
- YES
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
2 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.71
$0.36
- NO
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
2 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.71
$0.36
- NO
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.69
$0.02
- NO
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.65
$0.00
- YES
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.43
$0.03
- NO
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.32
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.65Jan 24, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.23Jan 24, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.67Jan 24, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$2.10Jan 24, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$3.00Jan 24, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.90Jan 24, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.20Dec 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.35Dec 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.35Dec 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.32Dec 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.30Dec 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.70Dec 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.40Dec 28, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$343.70Dec 19, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$31.00Dec 2, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$3.25Dec 2, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$4.93Dec 2, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$203.02Dec 2, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMHasanAbi arrested by October 31?$1.14Dec 2, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?$1.56Dec 2, 07:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $8.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 21, 16:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 24, 02:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".