Vivid-Movement
0x4a3aeeb7e8fe556a8c2d319348ef8e50b203af71
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-289.79
Realised
$-8.79
Win rate
1%
195 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 12?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on July 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on August 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$0.54Aug 13, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$1.25Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.30Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.14Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$0.02Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.30Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.30Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.30Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.30Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$1.25Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$3.74Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$1.25Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?$0.31Aug 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 13?$2.22Aug 13, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 13?$3.44Aug 13, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 13?$1.79Aug 13, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 13?$1.56Aug 13, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 13, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?$11.10Aug 12, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$12.99Aug 12, 18:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 195 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
195 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 04:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 12:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 195 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.