Grizzled-Still
0x4a3b1840c060cf9a64cddad1ecb158d35b62401e
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-135.92
Realised
$-6.83
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?
4512 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?
27 shares @ 71.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-19.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?
25 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?
21 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-9.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 9?
18 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29?
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24?
15 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?
15 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23?
15 shares @ 43.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 2?$3.62Jul 2, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?$19.45Jul 2, 03:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29?$15.40Jun 29, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29?$7.43Jun 29, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29?$7.88Jun 29, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?$7.45Jun 29, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$15.00Jun 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$4.28Jun 28, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$4.82Jun 28, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$2.57Jun 28, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$3.19Jun 28, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?$2.72Jun 28, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?$7.99Jun 28, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28?$5.70Jun 28, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26?$15.00Jun 26, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?$7.02Jun 26, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?$5.15Jun 26, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?$16.89Jun 26, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?$6.03Jun 26, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?$14.68Jun 26, 07:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $7.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 21:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 05:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.