Subdued-Gear-Outside
0x4a5441b60a8831a3e8a504486e173b38cdc31c0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-280.93
Realised
$-2.92
Win rate
7%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on July 3?
515 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
197 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?
129 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 3?
102 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 3?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
90 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
51 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.03Jul 4, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$3.14Jul 3, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.57Jul 3, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.03Jul 3, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$3.13Jul 3, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$3.01Jul 3, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$3.10Jul 3, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$3.09Jul 3, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$9.61Jul 3, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$3.06Jul 3, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$3.14Jul 3, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 3, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$3.11Jul 3, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$9.09Jul 3, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$3.02Jul 3, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$5.16Jul 3, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana win on 2026-07-03?$2.05Jul 3, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Nikola Bartunkova vs Barbora Krejcikova$1.03Jul 3, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$1.03Jul 3, 17:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
54 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $3.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 06:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.