Basic-Chin
0x4a5c15222d20907ea2ca5c685e1379b5e36c48b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$45.95
Total PnL
$-843.61
Realised
$-15.41
Win rate
79%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
142 shares @ 13.5¢·now 18.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$26.20
$7.03
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 3.4¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$19.75
$2.75
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
9500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-16.48
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6?
3663 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-28.52
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
3398 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-122.43
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
2284 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.11
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2?
2200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-11.20
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4?
2089 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.79
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.