Yellow-Exaggeration
0x4a627ab4a4164f17033bf65d94eb50794cd7fa34
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
112
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-23.3K
Realised
$-496.41
Win rate
55%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 112- YES
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-02-10?
13641 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
5020 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-259.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
4732 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-299.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
4487 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-161.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
4311 shares @ 34.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.5K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
4153 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-805.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
3392 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-408.84
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
3087 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-203.73
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
3037 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$332.06Mar 10, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$332.55Mar 10, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$193.36Mar 10, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.1KMar 10, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$500.00Mar 10, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$600.00Mar 10, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$343.96Mar 10, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$300.00Mar 10, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$200.00Mar 10, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$40.00Mar 10, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$100.00Mar 10, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.0KMar 10, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$600.00Mar 10, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$130.49Mar 10, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$200.00Mar 10, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$247.00Mar 10, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$200.00Mar 10, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$33.03Mar 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$431.64Mar 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$87.34Mar 10, 08:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $315.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 08:18 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 10, 09:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.