0x4a7d937f7c12d7c31e23c2e154563d50b010e363
0x4a7d937f7c12d7c31e23c2e154563d50b010e363
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$8.42
Total PnL
$-324.23
Realised
$-9.76
Win rate
1%
134 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$7.59
$2.73
- YES
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?
92 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$0.82
$-0.28
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 1?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 16?
695 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.39
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?
695 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 1?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 1?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?
390 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 3?
349 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSolana all time high by September 30, 2026?$1.18Aug 1, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 24?$1.18Jul 21, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$4.89Jul 19, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$4.98Jul 18, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. England end in a draw?$2.02Jul 18, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$4.06Jul 17, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-18?$2.03Jul 17, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 20?$2.10Jul 16, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 in July?$2.09Jul 16, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $90 in July?$2.08Jul 16, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?$2.10Jul 15, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?$2.09Jul 15, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$25.29Jul 15, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?$1.16Jul 15, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$2.05Jul 15, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 16?$1.49Jul 15, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on July 21?$1.25Jul 15, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 13-19?$1.25Jul 14, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 16?$1.24Jul 14, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?$1.25Jul 14, 17:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 134 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
134 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 09:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 19:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 134 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.