0x4a9a87962893e6e119f1cc7f67c61d0287e0f675
0x4a9a87962893e6e119f1cc7f67c61d0287e0f675
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
152
Open notional
$30.25
Total PnL
$-3.1M
Realised
$2.2M
Win rate
29%
92 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 152- YES
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
11 shares @ 5.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$10.51
$9.89
- YES
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
9 shares @ 3.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2024$9.18
$8.86
- YES
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
3 shares @ 3.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$2.52
$2.44
- NO
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House
2 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$2.00
$0.54
- NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
1 shares @ 29.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$1.03
$0.72
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 1.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$1.00
$0.98
- NO
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$1.00
$0.01
- NO
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$1.00
$0.12
- YES
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
1 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$1.00
$0.94
- NO
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14
1 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$1.00
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025?$0.39Jan 13, 17:28 UTC
- REWARD$0.80Dec 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$474.22Dec 2, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$2.50Dec 2, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$0.10Dec 2, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$100.00Dec 2, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$1.00Dec 2, 15:35 UTC
- REWARD$0.62Dec 2, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$0.40Dec 1, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$0.71Nov 30, 00:01 UTC
- REWARD$0.86Nov 29, 00:01 UTC
- REWARD$0.36Nov 28, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?$8.28Nov 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?$6.21Nov 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?$6.21Nov 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?$26.91Nov 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?$84.58Nov 27, 13:31 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed decision in December?$2.1KNov 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?$683.10Nov 27, 13:30 UTC
- REWARD$1.80Nov 7, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.1K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 03:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 13, 17:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 92 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.