Stained-Airbus
0x4aa99de44d160fb261b18f73878ee0bea53687fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
154
Open notional
$170.62
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-56.09
Win rate
42%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 154- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
76 shares @ 82.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$76.00
$13.16
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
40 shares @ 85.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$39.99
$5.80
- NO
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
25 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$25.00
$9.24
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.75
$-3.25
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 38.7¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.88
$-1.79
- NO
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
2180 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-244.30
- YES
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election?
508 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-17.97
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
378 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-45.25
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
165 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.80
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
31 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.