Wallet digest

active

Activity score

69/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

128

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-922.13

Realised

$234.66

Win rate

97%

32 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 128

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 10AM ET
1050 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 9, 2025
$0.00
$-34.25
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 3PM ET
805 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025
$0.00
$-67.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 12PM ET
440 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025
$0.00
$-57.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 1PM ET
350 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2025
$0.00
$-28.99
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 20, 8PM ET
210 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2025
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 1AM ET
170 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2025
$0.00
$-16.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 10AM ET
160 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025
$0.00
$-22.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 20, 2PM ET
160 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2025
$0.00
$-8.40
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 1AM ET
128 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025
$0.00
$-13.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6PM ET
115 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2025
$0.00
$-34.50

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9AM ET$0.00Oct 5, 08:29 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9AM ET$0.00Oct 5, 08:14 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - September 30, 1AM ET$0.60Sep 30, 05:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - September 30, 1AM ET$3.20Sep 30, 05:21 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12AM ET$0.20Sep 30, 04:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12AM ET$1.40Sep 30, 04:28 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - September 29, 8PM ET$4.60Sep 30, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - September 29, 8PM ET$2.30Sep 30, 00:17 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - September 29, 3PM ET$2.00Sep 29, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - September 29, 3PM ET$1.25Sep 29, 19:14 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 1PM ET$0.70Sep 29, 17:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 1PM ET$4.00Sep 29, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7PM ET$8.10Sep 28, 23:26 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - September 28, 6PM ET$2.00Sep 28, 22:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4PM ET$1.53Sep 28, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4PM ET$0.47Sep 28, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4PM ET$0.50Sep 28, 20:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4PM ET$1.50Sep 28, 20:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4PM ET$2.00Sep 28, 20:20 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2PM ET$2.25Sep 28, 18:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

80/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

97% win rate over 32 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

32 closed markets, 97% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $2.22
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Sep 23, 04:11 UTC
Last active: Oct 5, 08:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 32 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:56:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data